1. In your book (Time and
Money, 2001) you present a graphical framework
that captures the essence of Austrian Macroeconomics.
The first impression is that this project
is something that the Austrians should welcome,
either to explain the business cycle theory
in a simpler way (traditional Austrian literature
is not an easy reading) or to facilitate
a critical debate about the use of graphics
in economics. How did you become involved
with this idea?
I was led to a graphical approach
in graduate school where I was confronted
with the Keynesian ISLM analysis and realized
that Austrians didn't have a viable alternative
to it. There was no way to put Keynesian
macro head-to-head with Austrian macro.
So even at that early stage, one of my objectives
was to create an Austrian graphical framework
that could compare favorably with mainstream
constructions. The general idea was that
it takes a set of graphics to beat a set
of graphics, so I pursued it on that basis.
In the early 1970s, I wrote
my first graphical piece, which was eventually
published by the Institute for Humane Studies
(in 1978) as a monograph titled Austrian
Macroeconomics. It was based on Mises's
classical rendition of the relationships,
so it was hard for modern students to understand-because
it wasn't in their analytical language.
That piece was welcomed many Austrian economists,
even those who weren't particularly fond
of graphical analysis per se. Murray Rothbard,
for instance, who was not known for his
analytics, loved the graphics. He simply
saw the piece as "the Keynesians being
beaten at their own game."
But I think the technique
goes well beyond that. Adopting a graphical
form is a good way to get a coherent exposition
of the theory. The graphs impose a certain
discipline on your thinking. You have to
line up the diagrams and sometimes make
adjustments to the theory to make it all
work. Yet, these adjustments, it usually
turns out, have a basis in the Austrian
literature-for instance, the business of
pushing beyond the production possibilities
frontier as a way to represent an "overheated"
economy. If you put the theory in a graphical
form you can see this aspect of the policy-induced
boom; you see that people are investing
more and consuming more. That means pushing
beyond the frontier. It's something that
has rarely been noticed in the Austrian
literature, but it's there and it's a logical
necessity. The interlocking graphs have
a way of flushing out almost all of the
critical aspects of the Austrian argument.
2. Graphics imposing discipline
recalls an engineering approach
My undergraduate degree is
in electrical engineering. After graduation
I ended up in the Air Force, spending my
time in upstate New York in a Research and
Development Laboratory as a systems engineer
specializing in electronic countermeasures.
The Vietnam war ended about the same time
I was released from the military, and there
was a glut in the market for engineering.
My options were to stay in warfare electronics,
which I didn't want to do, or get out from
engineering, which I also didn't want to
do
but that's what I did and I got
into economics. My engineering degree was
from a school in Missouri, which required
students to take one class covering both
microeconomics and macroeconomics. I did
a Masters in Economics at the University
of Missouri-Kansas City. Then I worked for
3 years at the Federal Reserve before continuing
my graduate studies at the University of
Virginia.
3. Is Austrian macroeconomics
a contradiction in terms? In your book,
you ask Austrians to accept that the market
processes have consequences for macroeconomic
aggregates. What was the reaction to this
approach?
The reaction was really mixed.
As I already mentioned, Rothbard liked my
Austrian Macroeconomics, but I also got
some hate mail from people who said that
it was a sacrilege to Mises to represent
his ideas with macroeconomic graphs; it
was just unacceptable.
That was my first indication of a strong
visceral attitude against graphical expositions.
But I haven't spent much time defending
the approach-because I'm more interested
in dealing with people who find the graphs
helpful than confronting people who simply
say that graphs are inappropriate and walk
away. I had a student in my office, for
instance, who told me: "you can show
me the graphs if you want, but you might
as well show me a head of cabbage; they
mean about the same thing to me."
Even micro involves aggregation.
If you have the supply and demand for apples,
you treat apples as if they are all alike,
you build up the total, or aggregate, demand
for apples, and so on. You would have to
disaggregate the apples if you're trying
to account for the price differences among
different varieties of apples. The point
is that you need your level of aggregation
to be consistent with the theory in which
it is employed, but this is true for micro
no less than for macro. There's nothing
unique about using macroeconomic aggregates.
4. You introduced a new
key phrase: "capital-based macroeconomics."
Could you tell us about the advance in the
field facilitated by this new vision?
I'm gratified to see the phrase
"capital-based macroeconomics"
catch on. Not long after I started using
it, I began to see it appear in quotation
marks or with a "so-called" attached.
Now, it's frequently used as a generic term
and with no special reference to my work.
That's good. The idea, of course, is to
use a name that's based on the substance
of the theory rather than on its national
origins.
There's room for advancement
mainly in the form of empirical studies,
or better, historical studies, which is
the Austrians' understanding of empirical
anyway. Ben Powell, a GMU graduate who is
now on the faculty at San Jose State in
California, has pushed forward in this direction.
He wrote a very good article
explaining Japan's recession using the
Austrian theory. He took Japan as a case
study that fits nicely into the capital-based
framework. The piece was published in the
Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics.
He recently he told me that the article
was inspired by my Time and Money.
Also, there is a working paper
at the International Monetary Fund that
wonders out loud if the Austrian theory
might have current applicability. That piece,
by Stefan
Oppers, is essentially a review article
based on my book. Though the paper's conclusions
are mixed and weak, I'm encouraged to see
the IMF pay attention to the Austrian theory
of the business cycle.